(Completely Unqualified and Somewhat Arbitrary) 2020 Democratic Primary Preference Rankings
The winnowing!
A lot has happened this fall. Let's see where things stand as winter approaches!
Note: I need to update the "Recent News" and "Video Playlist" sections, but don't have time tonight. No idea when I'll get to it.
I have thoughts. What point is a blog if I don't share them with my (incredibly limited) audience? So, I'm starting a Ranking of Preference for 2020 Democratic Candidates. I'm considering a number of factors when putting together this ranking.
A lot has happened this fall. Let's see where things stand as winter approaches!
Note: I need to update the "Recent News" and "Video Playlist" sections, but don't have time tonight. No idea when I'll get to it.
I have thoughts. What point is a blog if I don't share them with my (incredibly limited) audience? So, I'm starting a Ranking of Preference for 2020 Democratic Candidates. I'm considering a number of factors when putting together this ranking.
Ranking Factors (in No Particular Order)
- Candidate's Story: Why them and why now? Why are they running for president? Why are they the best candidate (in their minds or those of their supporters)?
- Campaigning and General Election Strength: The most important thing is beating Trump. Why do I think one candidate would be better in the general than another? Read below to find out!
- Ability to Inspire: Let's face it--turning out voters is essential, and people are reluctant to turn out if they are not inspired.
- Qualifications for the Job: This whole experiment with an extremely unqualified president has been a complete disaster. The Democratic candidate needs to be ready, able to pick good advisers, able to listen to people who know more than them, able to learn the job quickly or already have a high level of understanding of the job and be someone we can trust to make the right decisions.
- Positions on Issues: I want to support a candidate I agree with. If I don't agree with their position on an issue, can I accept their reasons for why they believe what they believe?
- Momentum/Trending: Is this candidate trending up or down in my rankings? Why?
- Status: Have they declared their run or exploratory committee? If not, will they probably do so?
So, without further ado, the rankings!
| Rank (Change) | Candidate | Current Summary |
|---|---|---|
1
(holding)
|
Senior Senator from Massachusetts
(Age 70) |
Vox's Explainer (2/9/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/31/19) Signature Issue(s): No one does policy like Warren. She has a plan for just about everything. She is soundly beating her peers on policy proposals that are well-thought-out and would make a significant impact. She is running an amazing campaign and winning over voters everywhere she goes. She is the strongest campaigner in the field. She has also been showing real leadership, blazing a trail and leading by example rather than following opinions. Warren has a vision for the country and I want to live in that country she envisions. Recent News:
|
2
(Up 3)
|
Signature Issue(s): "Justice for All" through criminal justice reform, closing the racial wealth gap through his Baby Bonds plan, and appealing to our better angels to heal the divisions in this country. Doubling the Earned Income Tax Credit. Booker’s story and his message are amazing. He’s I can get behind that. He’s just not campaigning well and his poll numbers are lagging. He's my second favorite candidate left in the race, but I think he's probably out by Iowa. Recent News: |
|
3
(Up 9)
|
Vox's Explainer (1/12/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (6/3/19) Signature Issue(s): It began with immigration reform. Even his largest policy proposal, his great "People First" Immigration plan, didn't hardly register in the national conversation. He's getting some support, for the plan at least, with liberal media pundits, but he's still not getting any serious national press attention. Castro is an inspiring candidate and the first Mexican-American candidate with a shot at a major party nomination. The problem is that he can't break through to wider audiences. I doubt he lasts after Iowa, and I really doubt he lasts past Christmas.
Recent News:
| |
4
(Down 1)
| Signature Issue(s): Young, charismatic, gay, millennial mayor from Indiana... But his real signature issue right now is that he's swerved hard to the center. His campaign has been going incredibly well in Iowa where he appeals to voters who want a return to normalcy and dignity. Buttigieg rode his moment as the new “It Boy” ever since his Pod Save America interview and turned it into real progress in the campaign. He’s an incredibly inspiring campaigner, and I could really see him winning the nomination. He’s still pretty policy-light, and he’s moderate on some issues where I’m to his left, so I'm not as enthusiastic as before. He has some messaging issues and I'm not sure how much I trust his campaign staff, but they're good at what they're doing. He also has some serious history as mayor where his bureaucracy didn’t help marginalized members of his community adapt to his ambitious plans for South Bend. A problem like that would snowball at the federal level and it's bogging down his campaign with people of color. If he doesn't clean it up and do the hard work of repairing his image and building relationships with people of color, he's destined to be what Dan Pfieffer recently referred to as "2020's version of the 2016 Mike Huckabee campaign." Meaning, he'll do well in Iowa and go nowhere fast afterward. Recent News: | |
5
(Down 1)
|
Vox's Explainer (4/25/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (6/4/19) Signature Issue(s): Electability and name recognition. Biden is betting on his high poll numbers with working-class white voters and near-universal fondness for the Obama years among Democratic and independent voters. And he's got a point. Polling puts him ahead of Trump in nearly every battleground state and some typical Republican strongholds like Texas and Georgia. A lot of people know and respect Biden so much that they tend to overlook he has a history as a horrible campaigner. He’s run for president multiple times before. He’s not good at running a national campaign. He’d govern well, but getting there is most of the problem. He's actually seen a boost in primary polling because of the Impeachment Inquiry, which is... odd. The slanderous allegations about it are probably more damaging with his popularity toward a general election audience than with the primary audience. He's running as a moderate. Recent News
Interesting Articles:
| |
6
(Up 4)
|
Vox's Explainer (2/19/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (4/12/19) Signature Issue(s): Medicare for All, taking credit (pretty correctly) for pushing the Democratic Party to the left in 2016. Sanders is warming on me as a primary candidate, but he's not gaining much ground in the polls. His advance on this list is largely due to others dropping out more than his own work on the trail.
He’s still probably the worst general election candidate on the list so far. I know people point to poll numbers as a counter-argument, but Sanders’ career is a gold mine for opposition research. He’s vulnerable from every period of his career, especially on foreign policy.
He's also old. Argue all you like, but the reality is that he's almost 80. The complications that come with his age are innumerable and devastating. He had a heart attack in October for Chrissakes. I want the new Democratic president to serve two full terms. He would probably struggle to do so.
Overall, his message is good. He’s campaigning better this time than 2016. He's got great domestic policies. He's had a few stumbles, though.
I'd like to see more policy discussion around gun safety, climate change, human rights, and foreign affairs.
I don't want him to win the nomination, but he'd get my general election vote. That's probably not saying much.
Recent News:
Interesting Articles:
| |
7
(Up 1)
|
Vox's Explainer (3/11/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (4/7/19) Signature Issue(s): Universal Basic Income. Yang wants to take Alaska's UBI national. Very intelligent and has good ideas. Extremely data-driven. The fact he bases his ideas on data is both a benefit and a liability. He's all-in, though, even printing "Math" on his merch. Sadly, he's not an inspiring campaigner, which means he probably won't have much success anywhere other than the internet. Yang's recent media blitz and policy roll-outs have gotten buried everywhere but the internet. His target demographic spends a lot of time online, so he's actually doing pretty well with that group. It's just probably not going to spread beyond the niche audience. Recent News: | |
8
(New)
|
Vox's Explainer (8/9/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (11/25/19)
Signature Issue(s): Impeachment, climate change, and reforming the political process.
Recent News:
Video Playlist:
| |
9
(Up 4)
|
Vox's Explainer (2/10/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/3/19) Signature Issue(s): Infrastructure. Read her $1 trillion plan. I honestly don’t know enough about Klobuchar other than that she sells herself as a moderate and has a history of being a terrible boss. She seems to be running toward the center as fast as the shadow of Joe Biden can carry her. Recent News: | |
10
(New)
|
Vox's Explainer (11/14/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (11/14/19)
Signature Issue(s): Affordable Care Act (supports with an added public option), climate change (end reliance on coal and use multiple strategies to fight climate change), immigration (some support for undocumented immigrants), gun control (ban assault weapons), education (supports charter schools, universal pre-K, and free community college), abortion access, opioid crisis (require insurance coverage of up to 14 days of inpatient care for addiction). (Source: Axios)
Recent News:
Video Playlist:
| |
11
(Up 5)
|
Vox's Explainer (5/2/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/2/19) Signature Issue(s): He calls himself a pragmatist. He's running as a centrist. A former superintendent of Denver schools. Cancer survivor. A compelling story--a less compelling candidate. Recent News:
| |
12
(New)
|
Vox's Explainer (11/25/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (11/24/19) Signature Issue(s): Gun control and climate change are his main issues. He's a centrist on fiscal issues. He's very data-driven, a former Republican, and running as a moderate. Recent News: | |
13
(Up 5)
|
Vox's Explainer (1/17/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (3/11/19) Signature Issue(s): Staunchly anti-war. Gabbard has had some questionable foreign policy impulses. She’s got an awful history on LGBT rights (which she’s apologized for). But she’s young, has a strong appeal to Sanders’ supporters, and she is an interesting story. She's a veteran who's spending huge amounts of time on Fox News (largely criticizing the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton).
Recent News:
| |
14
(Up 7)
|
Vox's Explainer (Sort of.) (2/11/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (2/27/19) Signature Issue(s): Bipartisanship. Multi-millionaire former congressman. Retired to run for president in 2017. He’s got high name recognition in Iowa because he’s been campaigning there for years. (Literally.) He’s still polling at about 1%. Recent News: | |
15
(Up 10)
|
Vox's Explainer (1/30/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/9/19) Signature Issue(s): A "moral and spiritual awakening." What I’ve heard about her has largely not been good. Hard pass.
Recent News:
|
What are my issues? (Music Gamer's ISideWith Profile)
- Climate change (Green New Deal or an alternative plan)
- Economy (jobs, justice, safety net, poverty, universal basic income, etc.)
- Gun safety (common sense restrictions)
- A New Second Bill of Rights
- Universal health care including vision, dental, mental health, and full women's reproductive care
- Voting rights - one person one vote (eliminate the electoral college, update the Voting Rights Act, end gerrymandering, implement ranked choice voting, let everyone vote)
- Get money out of politics (end Citizens United, pass anti-corruption/anti-lobbying laws)
- Employment (federal job guarantee)
- Housing (Free quality public housing/revamped Section 8)
- Address inequality (wealth tax, land value tax, progressive tax system, end billionaires)
- Free quality public education through public college (class sizes, teacher pay, etc.)
- Equality for all (protect marginalized communities)
- Equal access to information (net neutrality and national public broadband internet)
- Strengthen unions
- Criminal justice reform
- Reform the judiciary (commission a study and whatever experts think works best, expanding the courts, rotations among courts, whatever)
- Human rights (at home and around the world)
- Immigration reform (Castro's People First policy is a great place to work from)
- Restoring the US as a leader by example rather than by might
- End the Authorized Use of Military Force
- And more...
Changelog
- 12/3/19 - Added Steyer, Bloomberg, and Patrick. Removed Harris, Inslee, O'Rourke, Gillibrand, Abrams, Swalwell, Bullock, Moulton, Ryan, Hickenlooper, MEssam, de Blasio, and Gravel. Moved a number of candidates around.
- 6/6/19 - Added Vox Explainers or similar. Added Axios's "On the Issues" summaries. Added Signature Issue(s). Added Recent News. Added Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio. Updated rankings.
- 4/25/19 - Added candidate website links. Added Seth Moulton. Rankings changed. Updated some information for the top 10.
- 4/19/19 - Reformatted HTML to clean up the code. Added information to Yang, Sanders, Hickenlooper, and Castro. Reformatted others. Added links on issues. Added Changelog. No ranking changes.
- 4/18/19 - Video Playlists for each candidate. Added ISideWith profile.
- 4/17/19 - Flushed out and ranked every declared major candidate plus Biden and Abrams. Used Facebook post and Wikipedia as original source material.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Your comment will be reviewed and posted when approved.