(Completely Unqualified and Somewhat Arbitrary) 2020 Democratic Primary Preference Rankings
The field may have one or two left, but it's probably final.
I have thoughts. What point is a blog if I don't share them with my (incredibly limited) audience? So, I'm starting a Ranking of Preference for 2020 Democratic Candidates. I'm considering a number of factors when putting together this ranking.
I have thoughts. What point is a blog if I don't share them with my (incredibly limited) audience? So, I'm starting a Ranking of Preference for 2020 Democratic Candidates. I'm considering a number of factors when putting together this ranking.
Ranking Factors (in No Particular Order)
- Candidate's Story: Why them and why now? Why are they running for president? Why are they the best candidate (in their minds or those of their supporters)?
- Campaigning and General Election Strength: The most important thing is beating Trump. Why do I think one candidate would be better in the general than another? Read below to find out!
- Ability to Inspire: Let's face it--turning out voters is essential, and people are reluctant to turn out if they are not inspired.
- Qualifications for the Job: This whole experiment with an extremely unqualified president has been a complete disaster. The Democratic candidate needs to be ready, able to pick good advisers, able to listen to people who know more than them, able to learn the job quickly or already have a high level of understanding of the job and be someone we can trust to make the right decisions.
- Positions on Issues: I want to support a candidate I agree with. If I don't agree with their position on an issue, can I accept their reasons for why they believe what they believe?
- Momentum/Trending: Is this candidate trending up or down in my rankings? Why?
- Status: Have they declared their run or exploratory committee? If not, will they probably do so?
| Rank (Change) | Candidate | Current Summary |
|---|---|---|
1
(holding)
|
Senior Senator from Massachusetts
(Age 69) |
Vox's Explainer (2/9/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/31/19) Signature Issue(s): No one does policy like Warren. She has a plan for just about everything. She’s not the stump campaigner that I’d like, but she is soundly beating her peers on policy proposals that are well thought-out and would make a significant impact. Her speaking is becoming stronger as her story spreads. She has been showing real leadership, blazing a trail and leading by example rather than following opinions. She's trending up in a lot of opinions and polls as people get to really know her. Her level of inspiration is rising and so are her poll numbers. Warren has a vision for the country and I want to live in that country she envisions. Recent News:
|
2
(holding)
|  |
Vox's Explainer (1/21/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/28/19) Signature Issue(s): The LIFT Act, a cost-of-living tax credit for families and individuals that would be a major economic stimulus package. Teacher pay increase plan. (Time 3/26/19). Harris continues to comport herself well on all legal and political issues, but she also seems a half-step behind on the bold leadership that Democratic primary voters are so passionately seeking. She has started to push some major policy proposals that are very appealing to me, proving (in my eyes) she belongs in my top two. Recent News:
|
3
(holding)
|
Signature Issue(s): Young, charismatic, gay, millennial mayor from Indiana... But his real signature issue right now is that he's light on policy (substance) and heavy on media exposure (charm). Buttigieg is having a great moment as the new “It Boy” ever since his Pod Save America interview. He’s an incredibly inspiring campaigner, and I could really see him winning the nomination. He’s still pretty policy-light, and he’s somewhat moderate on some issues where I’m to his left. He also has some history as mayor where his bureaucracy didn’t help marginalized members of his community adapt to his ambitious plans for South Bend. A problem like that would snowball at the federal level. He’s still the most inspiring candidate in the field not named Elizabeth Warren. He did a good job in his 4/22 town hall, but it's hurting him to be so policy-light. He reacted well to Franklin Graham's homophobic bigotry and the "I know bait when I see it" clip was an excellent one-liner. Recent News:
| |
4
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (4/25/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (6/4/19) Signature Issue(s): Electability and name recognition. Biden is betting on his high poll numbers with working-class white voters and near-universal fondness for the Obama years among Democratic and independent voters. And he's got a point. Recent polling puts him ahead of Trump in TEXAS by 4 points. A lot of people know and respect Biden so much that they tend to overlook he has a history as a horrible campaigner. He’s run for president multiple times before. He’s not good at running for the office. He’d govern well, but getting there is most of the problem. He's running as a moderate, but at least he hired Symone Sanders as an adviser. That shows an excellent eye for at least being open to where the party is heading. It's the main reason he hasn't fallen on my rankings. Recent News
Interesting Articles:
| |
5
(holding)
|
Signature Issue(s): "Justice for All" through criminal justice reform, closing the racial wealth gap through his Baby Bonds plan, and appealing to our better angels to heal the divisions in this country. Doubling the Earned Income Tax Credit. Booker’s story and his message are amazing. He’s almost as inspirational as Buttigieg, he’s much more experienced in government, he’s a strong communicator, he’s got a message that people’s anger is based in their love for their country and they need to use that anger to motivate them to make a change. I can get behind that. He’s just not campaigning well. He gets buried in the news with measured responses to Trump instead of carving a path (like Warren and Buttigieg). Recent News:
| |
6
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (Sort of. Not official. 5/13/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/16/19) Signature Issue(s): Climate change is the single biggest threat to humanity. Inslee gets that and makes it the centerpiece of his campaign. He is on the right side of nearly every issue. He understands and likes Warrens policy proposals. He’s intelligent, well-versed, and would be the ideal candidate if the field were smaller. In this field, he’s not going to break out of the pack. That said, I would want him working in the administration. Probably secretary of the interior. He needs to be a part of the party’s future and the party’s response to climate change. Recent News:
| |
7
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (3/14/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (6/5/19) Signature Issue(s): Style over substance. Beto has been spending the last two months fighting the idea that he's all charm and there's no "there" there. He did unveil a $5 trillion climate change plan to try to change the conversation. Beto has drawn crowds and inspired people in Texas. At the federal level, he’s getting schooled by the mayor of the fourth largest city in Indiana. Not a good look. He’s got funding, he’s got attention, and he’s fading fast. I’d support him in the general, but I think he waited way too long to get into the race and it’s hamstrung him. He could recover, but I’m not sure it will happen. Recent News:
| |
8
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (3/11/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (4/7/19) Signature Issue(s): Universal Basic Income. Yang wants to take Alaska's UBI national. Very intelligent and has good ideas. Extremely data-driven. The fact he bases his ideas on data is both a benefit and a liability. He's all-in, though, even printing "Math" on his merch. Sadly, he's not an inspiring campaigner, which means he probably won't have much success anywhere other than the internet. Yang's recent media blitz and policy roll-outs have gotten buried everywhere but the internet. His target demographic spends a lot of time online, so he's actually doing pretty well with that group. It's just probably not 3/going to spread beyond the niche audience. Recent News:
| |
9
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (1/15/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/7/19) Signature Issue(s): Women's rights, ending sexual assault, reproductive rights, Clean Elections/Campaign Finance Reform. Gillibrand has a history of doing things that were politically expedient. It’s easy to paint her as a hypocrite because of it, and it could be low-hanging fruit for Republicans. Her historical positions on gun safety and immigration are abhorrent to me. She’s changed to the correct side, but her tendency to follow rather than blaze a path is troubling. She lost major standing with me when she was unwilling to call out the anti-Muslim bigotry and reckless endangerment that was Trump attacking Ilhan Omar. I don’t agree with everything Rep. Omar says, but Gillibrand's mealy-mouthed response to the assault and endangerment lost her quite a bit of my admiration. Recent News:
| |
10
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (2/19/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (4/12/19) Signature Issue(s): Medicare for All, taking credit (pretty correctly) for pushing the Democratic Party to the left in 2016. Sanders is warming on me somewhat as a primary candidate.
He’s still probably the worst general election candidate on the list so far. I know people point to poll numbers as a counter-argument, but Sanders’ career is a gold mine for opposition research. He’s vulnerable from every period of his career, especially on foreign policy.
He's also old. Argue all you like, but the reality is that he's almost 80. The complications that come with his age are innumerable and devastating. I want the new Democratic president to serve two full terms. He would probably struggle to do so.
Overall, his message is good. He’s campaigning better this time than 2016. He's got great domestic policies. He's had a few stumbles, though.
I'd like to see more policy discussion around gun safety, climate change, human rights, and foreign affairs.
I don't want him to win the nomination, but he'd get my general election vote. That's probably not saying much.
Recent News:
Interesting Articles:
| |
11
(holding)
|
Signature Issue(s):
Stacey Abrams has not declared she's running. Abrams is amazing. She’s brilliant, charismatic, and knows that for Democratic well-being, we need to pay attention to voting rights. She inspires people from Georgia and if she had the right moment to do so, she could do it nationally. Listen to her 5/9/19 interview on Pod Save America (starts at 61:55). She declined to run for Senate in April. Recent News:
| |
12
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (1/12/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (6/3/19) Signature Issue(s): Immigration reform. Even his largest policy proposal, his great "People First" Immigration plan, didn't hardly register in the national conversation. He's getting some support, for the plan at least, with liberal media pundits, but he's still not getting any serious national press attention. Castro is an inspiring candidate and the first Mexican-American candidate with a shot at a major party nomination. The problem is that he can't break through.
Recent News:
| |
13
(holding)
|
Vox's Explainer (2/10/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/3/19) Signature Issue(s): Infrastructure. Read her $1 trillion plan. I honestly don’t know enough about Klobuchar other than that she sells herself as a moderate and has a history of being a terrible boss. She seems to be running toward the center as fast as the shadow of Joe Biden can carry her. Recent News:
| |
14
(+1)
|
Vox's Explainer (4/8/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (4/9/19) Signature Issue(s): Gun control. I don’t see him making the debates, but he’s all in on one of my top issues. I don’t know much more about him. His announcement was viewed as a blip in the news coverage. Recent News:
| |
15
(New)
|
Governor of Montana
(Age 53)
| Vox's Explainer (5/14/19) Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/14/19) Signature Issue(s): Working with Republicans to actually get things done. Ending Citizens United. Former Attorney General who won in a deep red state. Pro-choice. Pro-LGBT. Ending dark money. Recent News:
|
16
(New)
|
Senator from Colorado
(Age 54)
| Vox's Explainer (5/2/19) Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/2/19) Signature Issue(s): He calls himself a pragmatist. He's running as a centrist. A former superintendent of Denver schools. Cancer survivor. A compelling story--a less compelling candidate. Recent News:
|
17
(-1)
|
Vox's Explainer (4/22/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/28/19) Signature Issue(s): Foreign policy, national security, and defense. Running as a left-of-center Democrat who's more moderate than most of the candidates. He's a four-tour marine veteran who is well-credentialed for foreign policy.
Recent News:
| |
18
(-4)
|
Vox's Explainer (1/17/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (3/11/19) Signature Issue(s): Staunchly anti-war. Gabbard has had some questionable foreign policy impulses. She’s got an awful history on LGBT rights (which she’s apologized for). But she’s young, has a strong appeal to Sanders’ supporters, and she is an interesting story.
If she were going to break through and make a name for herself in the primary, I think she probably would do so in the debates.
I don’t think she’s going to make it on the stage.
Recent News:
| |
19
(-2)
|
Vox's Explainer (4/4/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/16/19) Signature Issue(s): Rebuilding the middle class (mostly industrial Midwest). I know very little about him. Recent News:
| |
20
(-2)
|
Vox's Explainer (3/4/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/30/19) Signature Issue(s): Criticizing the left wing of the Democratic Party and running as a centrist. He's nowhere near as talented as most of the field. He's been kind of tone-deaf on women in politics. There's also the dumb porn story. Recent News:
| |
21
(-2)
|
Vox's Explainer (Sort of.) (2/11/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (2/27/19) Signature Issue(s): Bipartisanship. Multi-millionaire former congressman. Retired to run for president in 2017. He’s got high name recognition in Iowa because he’s been campaigning there for years. (Literally.) He’s still polling at about 1%. Recent News:
| |
22
(-2)
|
Vox's Explainer (none)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (3/30/19) Signature Issue(s): Cancelling student loan debt. Newcomer. I know next to nothing about him. CBS did a profile (3/28/19). Recent News:
| |
23
(New)
|
Mayor of New York, NY
(Age 58)
| Vox's Explainer (5/16/19) Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/15/19) Signature Issue(s): Wants to "be on the side of working people." Recent News:
|
24
(-3)
|
Vox's Explainer (3/28/19)
Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/5/19) Signature Issue(s): Ending all wars. Not a serious candidate/contender. Only filed to run specifically to push the field to the left, mostly on foreign policy. I support the goal, but his views are actually even further to the left than mine. He said he will drop out and endorse the most progressive candidate after the summer debates. He's still a better candidate than Williamson. Recent News:
| |
25
(-3)
| 
Activist and Author
(Age 66)
| Vox's Explainer (1/30/19) Axios's "On the Issues" Summary (5/9/19) Signature Issue(s): A "moral and spiritual awakening." What little I’ve heard about her has not been good. She’s apparently a “New Age Author and Spiritual Leader” according to her Wikipedia entry. Yeah, I’m not sold. She might as well be a reality TV star in my eyes. Hard pass.
Recent News:
|
According to Wikipedia, here are the likely candidates who have not declared (not appearing in my rankings):
- Stacey Abrams (See Above), former Georgia Minority Leader
- Joe Sanberg, entrepreneur and investor from California
What are my issues? (Music Gamer's ISideWith Profile)
- Climate change (Green New Deal or an alternative plan)
- Economy (jobs, justice, safety net, poverty, universal basic income, etc.)
- Gun safety (common sense restrictions)
- A New Second Bill of Rights
- Universal health care including vision, dental, mental health, and full women's reproductive care
- Voting rights - one person one vote (eliminate the electoral college, update the Voting Rights Act, end gerrymandering, implement ranked choice voting, let everyone vote)
- Get money out of politics (end Citizens United, pass anti-corruption/anti-lobbying laws)
- Employment (federal job guarantee)
- Housing (Free quality public housing/revamped Section 8)
- Address inequality (wealth tax, land value tax, progressive tax system, end billionaires)
- Free quality public education through public college (class sizes, teacher pay, etc.)
- Equality for all (protect marginalized communities)
- Equal access to information (net neutrality and national public broadband internet)
- Strengthen unions
- Criminal justice reform
- Reform the judiciary (commission a study and whatever experts think works best, expanding the courts, rotations among courts, whatever)
- Human rights (at home and around the world)
- Immigration reform (Castro's People First policy is a great place to work from)
- Restoring the US as a leader by example rather than by might
- End the Authorized Use of Military Force
- And more...
Changelog
- 6/6/19 - Added Vox Explainers or similar. Added Axios's "On the Issues" summaries. Added Signature Issue(s). Added Recent News. Added Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio. Updated rankings.
- 4/25/19 - Added candidate website links. Added Seth Moulton. Rankings changed. Updated some information for the top 10.
- 4/19/19 - Reformatted HTML to clean up the code. Added information to Yang, Sanders, Hickenlooper, and Castro. Reformatted others. Added links on issues. Added Changelog. No ranking changes.
- 4/18/19 - Video Playlists for each candidate. Added ISideWith profile.
- 4/17/19 - Flushed out and ranked every declared major candidate plus Biden and Abrams. Used Facebook post and Wikipedia as original source material.
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